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Homelessness in San Diego County finally dropped. Can the decrease hold?

The point-in-time count offers the last snapshot of the region before sweeping new tariffs take effect.

A homeless encampment off the I-5 in downtown San Diego, California. (Alejandro Tamayo / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
A homeless encampment off the I-5 in downtown San Diego, California. (Alejandro Tamayo / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
UPDATED:

There were 9,905 homeless people found in San Diego County in January, a decrease of several hundred individuals from the start of 2024 and the region’s first drop in years.

And that wasn’t the only good news.

The annual point-in-time count, which was publicly released Tuesday, saw decreases in shelters and on sidewalks. The number of homeless families dropped by 18.5% compared to last year. Young adults between the ages of 18 and 24 dipped by almost a fifth while this year’s veteran population was lower by around 25%.

The tally, taken just days after Donald Trump returned to the White House, offers perhaps the last snapshot of the region before the president began slashing budgets, cutting the federal workforce and implementing sweeping new tariffs, all of which could change what aid is available to vulnerable residents and potentially affect the cost of living.

“We are seeing a decrease across almost all of our communities,” Tamera Kohler, head of the Regional Task Force on Homelessness, said in an interview. “I’m also hearing from other communities across the state of California — they’re seeing similar decreases.”

The federally required count is overseen by the task force and conducted by volunteers. Its flaws are well known — anyone staying in a motel or couch surfing with friends, for example, is likely to stay hidden — and officials have long cautioned that the one-day tally represents only the bare minimum number of homeless people countywide.

It’s also just one of several ways to quantify the crisis. The task force additionally releases reports throughout the year that track how many individuals ask for help each month, and that data regularly show more people losing a place to stay for the first time than the number of homeless individuals connected to housing.

Homelessness, in other words, is far from over even without economic uncertainty.

“Too many people, for example, are living in their cars,” Kohler added in a statement, “and while we are moving closer toward eliminating family and veteran homelessness, we need more apartment owners and landlords willing to house people with assistance.”

By the numbers

The data is divided between people who are “sheltered,” meaning they’re under some sort of roof, however temporary, and “unsheltered,” which can include those in vehicles and tents. The latter category includes the tents within the city of San Diego’s designated camping areas by Balboa Park, and some elected leaders have argued that the hundreds of individuals staying at safe sleeping sites shouldn’t be classified as lacking shelter since the properties come with security guards, showers and other services.

Regardless, the point-in-time count recorded 5,714 people countywide as “unsheltered,” an approximately 6.5% decrease from the prior year’s total of 6,100-plus.

The region’s traditional shelters held 4,191 people, a 7% drop from last January’s tally of 4,500.

Kohler attributed the improving picture to a combination of factors, including a rental market that seems to finally be slowing down and investments in diversion programs, which can offer residents one-time payments to cover emergency expenses like car repairs.

While part of the region’s overall homeless population comes from other states or countries, homegrown homelessness remains the norm. Around 80% of those surveyed reported losing a place to stay in San Diego County, a share that has largely held steady for years.

Specific categories of people

There were 643 homeless veterans. A majority — 408 — were unsheltered. The numbers are nonetheless improvements over the year prior, when 865 people who served in the military lacked a home. That change may be the result of efforts to distribute more vouchers which help veterans pay rent.

Four hundred and fourteen households, amounting to more than 1,300 children and adults, were homeless. The vast majority had some form of shelter, and only a dozen families were found outside at the start of the year. (Those numbers especially are almost certain undercounts, as the California Department of Education has reported that thousands of children in San Diego County lack a steady address and are instead sleeping on floors and couches.)

Family homelessness dropped from more than 500 last year to 414 in January. The tally of homeless young adults slid from 839 to 674.

Vehicle homelessness was one of the few categories to see an increase. That population hit 1,177 people in January, up from 1,104 during last year’s count.

Officials wrote in a press release that the oldest person found was an 80-year-old man.

The total number of older adults on the street was not available on Monday.

Individual cities

Just about every city in the county saw a decrease, although many were slight.

The city of San Diego recorded 5,866 homeless people at the start of the year. About 14% of that population was in a designated camping area or safe parking lot, where residents may sleep in their vehicles. Among the remaining 5,000 or so individuals, about half were in traditional shelters and half on the street.

Overall, the city of San Diego’s total homeless population dropped by about 13.5%. (In 2024, there were nearly 6,800 homeless individuals.)

In North County, Oceanside’s numbers went from 522 to 474. Carlsbad’s population fell from 189 to 160. Encinitas recorded 154 homeless people last year, while January’s total was 135.

Chula Vista’s count in South County dipped from 650 to 614. Further inland, 61 homeless individuals were found in La Mesa, six fewer than last year.

In each of those five cities, the majority were unsheltered.

The few places that did record increases generally saw only minor changes. Coronado tallied one person on the street in January, compared to zero last year. Poway used to have a single individual living outside; now there are nine. Fallbrook went from 7 unsheltered residents to 16.

El Cajon’s unsheltered population grew by more — from 283 to 344 — although Kohler mostly attributed that shift to people moving their vehicles to a local safe parking lot.

Much remains unknown about what outreach and shelter programs will continue to be funded. The city of San Diego, as well as the county and state, all face large budget deficits. Federal officials have held up tens of millions of dollars worth of homelessness grants amid a crackdown on undocumented residents, and rental assistance may soon end for hundreds of local families, potentially pushing some onto the street.

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