FORT COLLINS, Colo. – Three thoughts on San Diego State’s 68-63 loss at Colorado State on Saturday night:
1. Opposite trajectories
It is a growing reality that Aztecs fans must face:
The best college basketball team in San Diego might not be the one that plays home games in a sold-out 12,414-seat arena and has a dedicated practice facility, seven-figure NIL collective, a coach who makes $2.4 million per year and who two Aprils ago reached the NCAA championship game.
It might be the one in its first season as a full-fledged Division I member that has none of the above.
UC San Diego quietly ed SDSU in the NET metric following Saturday night’s results. The Tritons went from 52nd to 49th, the Aztecs from 49th to 52nd.
These things are subjective, of course, and the Aztecs are still slightly ahead in Kenpom (49th to UCSD’s 50th) and several other key metrics. And the Aztecs won 63-58 when the teams met at Viejas Arena in the Nov. 6 season opener.
But since November — when SDSU recorded wins against ranked Creighton and Houston teams, and UCSD lost 84-71 at home against Seattle — they have had decidedly opposite trajectories. UCSD is playing its best basketball of the season, convincingly avenging its only two Big West losses last week by 20 (against UC Riverside) and 18 points (against UC Irvine). SDSU is not, dropping 21 spots in the NET over the past month and going from an NCAA Tournament lock to iffy at best.
Another way to look at it: Since Jan. 1, in one metric that allows sorting by date, the Tritons rank 41st to the Aztecs’ 81st.
It should be noted, however, that there’s a difference between a good team and a good program.
UCSD, given its limited resources and lack of Division I pedigree, is most definitely the former. Its three best players are all seniors, and coach Eric Olen will be a hot candidate for open jobs this spring that could triple (or quadruple or quintuple) his salary. Sustaining this level of success will be challenging.
And while their metrics are comparable, their at-large NCAA résumés are not. SDSU has six Quad 1 or 2 wins and a single Quad 3 loss. UCSD has just two Quad 1 or 2 wins, two Quad 3 losses, and 18 wins at Quad 3 or below — putting them well behind power conference teams on the bubble.
That said, whose path to the NCAA Tournament would you rather have?
The Aztecs (16-5, 8-4) are still in the conversation for an at-large invitation, although that probably would take closing the regular season 7-1. And claiming the Mountain West’s automatic berth requires winning the conference tournament in Las Vegas, a three-wins-in-three-days proposition that they’ve accomplished only three times in the last 13 years (and not with a roster this young and inconsistent).
The Tritons’ road likely goes through the Big West Tournament across town in Henderson, Nev. As a No. 1 or 2 seed, they’d get a bye to the semifinals. Win two games against teams you just beat by a combined 38 points, and you’re in.
Maybe both make it, or neither do. The mere fact that it’s a possibility, though, is staggering in its own right.
2. Line disease
The Aztecs have struggled all season just getting to the line, attempting 77 fewer free throws than their opponents. On the rare occasion they do actually get there, they’re not making them.
They’re now shooting 67.6% for the season — 305th among 364 Division I teams — after an 11-for-21 night at Moby Arena. That’s the lowest since 2014-15, when they shot 63.0% and ranked 339th. (The 2019-20 team that finished 30-2 shot 77.3% and ranked 15th.)
The first half Saturday wasn’t bad: 6 of 8. The second half was: 5 of 13, including six straight misses during a key stretch with the game hanging in the balance. From 14:04 to 7:10 left, they were 1 of 8 at the line and a 50-47 lead became a 59-51 deficit.
That’s your ballgame.
“We’ve seen enough basketball to know one guy misses two and the next guy misses one, all of a sudden it becomes an epidemic,” coach Brian Dutcher said.
Freshman Pharaoh Compton clanked two and now has missed 10 straight. His last make was a month ago, and he’s shooting 32.4% for the season.
Sophomore Miles Heide clanked two. He’s now 3 of 15 for the season and 29.4% for his career.
Senior guard Wayne McKinney III missed a crucial front end of a one-and-one and is now at 62.5% for the season after shooting 73.1% in three years at USD. Fellow transfers Nick Boyd (84.2% to 77.5%) and Jared Coleman-Jones (77.1% to 61.9%) are both down from last season as well.
And don’t forget: Reese Waters, who made 43 straight to open last season and finished at 90.3%, hasn’t played.
As bad as it’s been, it hadn’t cost the Aztecs a game until Saturday. In fact, they were shooting better in losses (70.4%) than in wins (68.0%).
“It doesn’t take a coach to know if you go 11 of 21 from the foul line, a couple of them one-and-ones, it’s really hard to win,” Dutcher said. “Each team scored 22 baskets, we had one more 3 than they had, but they were 17 of 24 from the line and we were 11 of 21.
“There are a lot of things we can point out, but at the end of the day we missed a lot of free throws down the stretch that allowed them to get enough separation to win the game.”
3. Miles vs. Nique
The game within the game matched a pair of NBA prospects, SDSU’s 6-foot-7 sophomore wing Miles Byrd against Colorado State’s 6-6 senior wing Nique Clifford.
Byrd won the first meeting, Jan. 14 at Viejas Arena with Los Angeles Clippers president Lawrence Frank and a dozen other NBA scouts in attendance. He dazzled with 25 points, six rebounds and seven steals while Clifford, his primary defensive assignment, had 11 points on 1-of-8 shooting behind the 3-point arc. Final score: Aztecs 75, Rams 60.
Clifford won Round 2, with numerous scouts in Moby Arena. He had 21 points (4 of 7 behind the arc) and 13 rebounds. Byrd had seven points, all but one in the first half, while shooting 2 of 11 overall and 1 of 8 on 3s.
“Look at the difference in the two games,” Dutcher said. “Byrd dominated Nique Clifford in Viejas, and Clifford dominated the game today. You’re talking about two guys who are potential NBA players. One had a great game, and one didn’t. And the previous game at our place, one had a great game and the other didn’t.
“Sometimes, your best player has to step up and make baskets and make plays.”
It’s not just Saturday night, either.
In the six games since the quiet rivalry was hatched at Viejas Arena, Clifford has averaged 19.8 points and 10.0 rebounds. The Rams went 5-1 and climbed into third place in the Mountain West standings.
Byrd is averaging 11.8 points and 3.7 rebounds over that same stretch. The Aztecs went 4-2 (with three of the wins being metric-crushing close calls against bottom-tier opponents) and dropped to fifth.
“He’s a heck of a player,” Clifford said of Byrd. “I definitely took a lot of pride in that matchup. He had a really good game against us last time, so we wanted to shut that down. … He’s a key piece for their team — brings a lot of energy when he gets going offensively. Shutting that down was huge for our success tonight.”
How about a rubber match? It could come next month at the conference tournament.
