The great philosopher Yogi Berra would get a kick out of this.
The Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl for the third straight season, and the fifth time in the last six years. This time, a rematch against the Eagles, a team they beat 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII.
This after they defeated the 49ers 25-22 in overtime in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV.
Indeed, it is like déjà-vu, all over again.
Showdown contests are a different animal compared with a Sunday main slate.
You’d be hard-pressed to find a sport with higher variance than football, outside of the Chiefs stubbornly refusing to lose close games or give any other team from the AFC a shot at a title.
It’s hard enough to project what’s going to happen over the course of a season, let alone one week. Showdown contests require us to predict exactly what’s going to happen in a single game.
Choosing the right captain is key, and identifying a game script in which that player dominates will help you craft a narrative to build out your ing cast.
I prefer to choose my captain from the favored team.
A game total of 40 points or fewer usually leads me toward a running back since it’s plausible to project a slower-paced, defensive type of game environment.
A game total of 49 points or more usually points me toward a quarterback.
Vegas favors the Chiefs (-1½) to win Super Bowl LIX with a game total of 48½.
This means I’m starting my lineup with the MVP of three of the last five Super Bowls. Figures.
Which reminds me of something Berra once said about the indomitable Sandy Koufax: “I can see how he won 25 games. What I don’t understand is how he lost five.”
The Preamble
Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m back for the biggest game of the season to assist.
On DraftKings, it’s important to you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player sures 300 ing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards. Also, the player you select as your captain will score 1.5x the standard fantasy point value for each statistic.
Here is my optimal lineup for the $5 million Super Bowl LIX Millionaire Showdown contest featuring the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.
All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget, and you need at least one player from each team in the showdown format.
Super Bowl LIX Lineup
Captain: QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($15,000)
You either include Mahomes with Saquon Barkley, assuming the Eagles take a lead and force Mahomes to play from behind or without Barkley, assuming Kansas City gets off to a fast start after two weeks of preparation and forces Philadelphia off script early. There’s not a better coach with an extra week to prepare than Andy Reid. Going without Barkley will also allow you to differentiate yourself from the field.
Flex: QB Jalen Hurts, Eagles ($10,400)
Hurts appears healthy and is an obvious play if you’re anticipating Barkley falling short of his price tag ($12,000), unless you believe this will be a K.C. blowout (I don’t). In fact, win or lose, he could be the reason Barkley doesn’t have a big game. Hurts has had 41.2% of Philly’s rush attempts in the red zone this season, and that balloons to 56% of the attempts inside the 5-yard line.
Flex: TE Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($9,000)
Kelce did next to nothing against the Bills in the AFC championship. It’s implausible we get a repeat performance from the future Hall of Famer. Kelce could retire after this game, or even propose, but if this was a movie, he’d definitely seal the deal with a big game.
Flex: TE Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($5,800)
How many tight ends not named Kelce or Rob Gronkowski have had at least 45 receiving yards and a touchdown in a Super Bowl since 2000? Only two — Aaron Hernandez (Super Bowl XLVI vs. Giants in 2012) and Zach Ertz (Super Bowl LII vs. Patriots in 2018). I’m betting Goedert makes it three.
Flex: WR Marquise Brown, Chiefs ($5,400)
I’m anticipating fleet-footed rookie Xavier Worthy ($8,000) being a popular pairing in lineups with Mahomes. Potentially even more popular than Kelce. “Hollywood” offers a pivot with similar target share, big-play ability and a 40% air yards share since returning from injury.
Flex: WR DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs ($4,400)
Be thankful any time you can get a future Hall of Famer playing in his first Super Bowl as a cheap contrarian play. Sure, Hopkins has only three targets this postseason, but almost 15% of his targets have come in the end zone since he ed the Chiefs, and it won’t take much for him to pay off this price tag.
