It may seem too pro-San Diego to regard Carlsbad’s Kevin O’Connell as one of the NFL’s better head coaches.
The former San Diego State quarterback has yet to win a playoff game, nor has he completed his third season.
But, as I acknowledge potential hometown bias, O’Connell’s third Vikings teams stands 11-2 just two years after his first club won Minnesota’s first divisional title in five years. He’s above-average, already.
It’d be interesting to know for sure what has made the affable O’Connell, 39, so formidable so fast, and where he may someday lead the Vikings, whose generations of fans thirst for the franchise’s first Super Bowl win.
With a 31-16 career record, O’Connell stands tied for fifth in win rate (.660) the past three years alongside the Ravens’ John Harbaugh, a Super Bowl winner; and the 49ers’ Kyle Shanahan, a two-time NFC champion.
Only four coaches show a better regular-season winning percentage over the same stretch.
They are the Chiefs’ Andy Reid (.786), the Eagles’ Nick Sirianni (.766), the Bills’ Sean McDermott (.739) and a NFC North rival, the Lions’ Dan Campbell (.702).
Suffice that “KOC,” as the former Bolts fan is known, doesn’t stand for Keep On Chargering.
Instead of losing close games, O’Connell teams win them — and often. According to ESPN Stats and Information, the coach’s 24-9 record in one-score games places third in league history, behind only Guy Chamberlin and John Madden.
Statistics seem to reflect O’Connell’s reputed expertise on offense.
His first offense finished ninth in points, in part because under O’Connell, veteran QB Kirk Cousins took more chances on contested throws downfield. Despite losing Cousins to a midseason injury, the coach’s second Vikings offense remained competitive, winning with starters Joshua Dobbs and Jaren Hall and reliever Nick Mullens. This year’s offense sits eighth in points.
Let’s talk Xs and Os.
O’Connell has reprised a key offensive feature of the 2021 Rams who, with O’Connell as their offensive coordinator, won the Super Bowl. Excellence within three-receiver formations drove much of L.A.’s offense. The ing game became lethal after a second No. 1-caliber receiver, a resurgent Odell Beckham Jr., paired with ultra-versatile star Cooper Kupp late in the season.
ing the Vikings, O’Connell inherited a great, ultra-versatile receiver in Justin Jefferson; wisely, he has paired him up with Jordan Addison, the Vikings’ first-round draft selection in 2023.
Addison, smooth, slender and savvy, had a bright rookie year. This season, he’s become a top-tier No. 2 receiver. The former Pitt and USC star can scorch defenses that focus on Jefferson. This year, overcoming two ankle injuries, he is averaging 16.1 yards per catch and has eight total touchdowns. He’s just 22.
O’Connell excels at more than three-receiver designs, though he’s used them above the league-average rate each year.
Josh Oliver, a fifth-year tight end, is having a career-best season. Ace blocker Johnny Mundt and Oliver have blunted star tight end T.J. Hockenson’s injury struggles. The Vikings stand third in production with two-receiver, two-tight end formations, per SumerSports.com data.
If O’Connell has a superpower, it’s evaluating and developing QBs.
He and his Vikings boss, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, chose last offseason to let Cousins leave in free agency. They replaced him with Sam Darnold and drafted J.J. McCarthy, the former Michigan QB, in the first round.
Darnold, 27, stands as a huge bargain. With a salary cap charge ($5 million) that’s 31st among QBs, he sits third in er rating (108.1) amid a career-best year.
Cousins, 36, has fallen off with the Falcons. Perhaps there’s a physical reason for it; lately, his es have lacked zip. Whatever the cause, he’s underachieving a $90 million guarantee and 11th-ranked cap charge ($25 million).
O’Connell has improved the defense, too, by hiring coordinator Brian Flores, a former Patriots colleague under whom Minnesota has jumped from tied for 28th in points allowed before Flores arrived to tied for 13th in his first year and sixth this season.
The next big step he’ll likely try to take next month: notch Minnesota’s first playoff win since 2019. Then it would be time to consider the Super Bowl-winning potential of O’Connell who, as the Minneapolis Star-Tribune noted two wins ago, has reached 30 victories faster than any Vikings coach — including Hall of Famer Bud Grant.
