There are many reasons why people love the NFL.
Football has been tattooed on our country’s popular culture. From “The Longest Yard” to a young boy offering “Mean” Joe Greene his bottle of Coke, to “ the Titans,” stories about triumph over adversity are a beloved theme in the American narrative.
In less than two weeks, we’ll all gather with our families at Thanksgiving, and because it’s much easier to zone out in front of a television screen on a tryptophan high than talk to each other about current events, we’ll thankfully watch football.
I mean, we can all certainly agree that referees are bad and only getting worse.
It fosters relationships and rivalries. The athleticism is second-to-none. Gambling.
But if I had to choose just one reason, it’s that the NFL is never boring. On any given Sunday, anything can happen.
Across an entire season, those who are in the business of prognosticating, such as myself, will get our fair share of predictions right. At the very least, we should be able to explain the process, and show a strong understanding of probability.
But if you zoom in on any particular week of an NFL season, it can be like trying to understand quantum mechanics.
Last week, I offered up how Justin Jefferson’s “worst” game of the season was six receptions for 92 yards against the Jets in Week 5. Jefferson finished with five receptions for 48 yards against a lowly Jaguars defense that had been hemorrhaging fantasy points to anyone who had lined up against them this entire season.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling had three receptions for 31 yards in his previous seven games this year, mostly with Buffalo, before exploding for 109 yards and two touchdowns on three receptions for the injury-depleted Saints in an upset victory over the Falcons.
MVS had been in New Orleans for two weeks, which is barely enough time to learn anybody’s name.
This week, the surprise would be if he does it again.
The Preamble
Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.
On DraftKings, it’s important to you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player sures 300 ing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.
Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $2.5 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.
All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.
The Optimal Lineup has netted $177.86 this season, so I’m in the black $2.86 with an average score of 130.30 points through 10 weeks.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 90.16
Week 2: 144.38
Week 3: 100.38
Week 4: 180.78
Week 5: 147.14
Week 6: 126.72
Week 7: 132.98
Week 8: 114.84
Week 9: 168.48
Week 10: 97.16
Week 11 Lineup
QB: Bo Nix, Broncos ($6,200)
Nix is the overall QB9 through 10 weeks, but the rookie has been even better recently, as the overall QB6 since Week 5. The Falcons have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and ruled out eight players on Friday (seven on defense). Atlanta is also the first team in the Super Bowl era not to record at least 10 sacks in its first 10 games.
RB: Kyren Williams, Rams ($7,900)
Williams has had at least 20 touches in eight of nine games and hasn’t scored a TD since Week 8 after hitting paydirt in the first seven games of the season. He leads all NFL running backs in red-zone touches (49), and I believe he’s being overlooked this week against the Patriots, who are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to the position.
RB: De’Von Achane, Dolphins ($7,200)
In the five games Tua Tagovailoa has appeared under center for Miami, Achane has finished as the RB3, RB2, RB2, RB2 and RB24. The Raiders are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs, including 4.6 yards per carry.
WR: Jauan Jennings, 49ers ($5,300)
Jennings led San Francisco in receptions (seven), receiving yards (93) and targets (11) in his return from a hip injury. He’s essentially secured Brandon Aiyuk’s role in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. According to Fantasy Pros, the Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 4.
WR: Cedric Tillman, Browns ($5,300)
Tillman, a third-round draft pick in 2023, has had at least nine targets in each game since Amari Cooper was traded to Buffalo, producing 21 receptions for 255 yards and three TDs in the last three games before Cleveland’s bye. He’s still woefully underpriced considering his role and the volume in the Browns’ ing game with Jameis Winston slinging it all over the place. The Saints have allowed the 10th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers and no longer employ Marshon Lattimore.
WR: Marvin Mims Jr., Broncos ($3,100)
Mims is a quintessential “punt” option who could payoff huge in a stack with Nix. His role changed last week with head coach Sean Payton lining him up in the backfield in an attempt to manufacture touches. At very least, this allows me to squeeze three top-tier running backs in the lineup.
TE: Dawson Knox, Bills ($3,500)
Dalton Kincaid is out with a knee injury. The last time Kincaid was inactive, Knox received six targets against the Giants last season (Week 6). The Chiefs have allowed the most receiving yards per game, the fifth-highest yards per reception, and the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
FLEX: Christian McCaffrey, 49ers ($8,300)
After taking almost 90% of snaps in his return last week, McCaffrey is too cheap on DraftKings. In six career games vs. the Seahawks, CMC has 978 total yards with 33 receptions and eight TDs while averaging 6.2 yards per carry.
DST: Los Angeles Rams ($3,200)
The Rams are the highest-scoring defense in fantasy since Week 7. In Drake Maye’s four full games, opposing defenses have produced at least nine points three times.
