Sorry to be an NFL draft buzzkill regarding a featured aspect of Thursday’s first-round lollapalooza from Detroit.
Regarding the quarterbacks who’ll drive the telecasts and stir up giddiness among fans, the sad truth is this: half of the four to six expected to be chosen won’t pan out.
History says so. It’s a remarkable rate of failure given the advances in coaching and performance data.
Look at the carnage from the 2021 draft that saw five quarterbacks go before the 16th pick. Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones and Zach Wilson are not with their original teams. Only Trevor Lawrence, who went first to the Jaguars, remains with the club who drafted him.
The data explosion, among other industry gains, isn’t equating to better draft outcomes.
“It would be hard to point to the results and say we’ve made progress, as sad as that is,” said former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah, the former Christian High School quarterback who’ll call his 12th draft for the NFL Network.
The sharpest thorn in evaluating quarterbacks remains the same. Teams cannot know for sure how well a draftee will process the speed and complexity of NFL football. It’s a projection Jeremiah termed “darn near impossible.”
In addition, the on athletic ability has risen as defenders have become faster and more explosive.
Given those mental and physical challenges, it’s little wonder that injury risk looms as another potential wrecking ball to a young QB living up to the attendant hoopla of Draft Night.
Nevertheless, draftniks say quarterbacks will go first, second, third and perhaps fourth Thursday — and that two more will be taken among the round’s 32 picks.
Put another way, up to six clubs have decided a quarterback’s perceived limitations can be managed and not wreck the team’s first-round investment of four years of guaranteed money and a coveted team option for the player’s fifth year.
What are the potential pitfalls with several QBs in this year’s class?
For all of Jayden Daniels’ successes with LSU as both a er (40 touchdowns and four interceptions last year) and rusher (8.4 yards per carry as a fifth-year senior) that apparently will induce Washington or New England to take him second or third overall, the quarterback often struggled to maintain a downfield gaze if his ing options weren’t readily available. NFL teams no doubt delved into the reasons for it, while also ing for Daniels weighing about 185 pounds as a collegian.
A slightly elongated delivery and his own question-provoking actions were part of the pre-draft riddle with Drake Maye, the North Carolina star whose size, arm strength and athleticism recall Justin Herbert with Oregon.
“I would love to sit down with him and go through this and say, ‘Did they give you the answers here?’” Jeremiah said after his film study of Maye.
Jeremiah rates Maye, a former multi-sport standouts who’s just 21, his No. 2 QB behind Caleb Williams, the presumptive No. 1 pick. But the former scout ticked off other questions he’d love to ask Maye and added:
“I feel like there’s a lot of times when I’m watching him with pressure in his face and I freeze it, and say, ‘I don’t know where the heck he is supposed to go with this thing,'” Jeremiah said.
J.J. McCarthy was the starter at Michigan the past three years, ensuring him NFL-level coaching under Jim Harbaugh, a former NFL quarterback and head coach whose 2012 San Francisco 49ers — quarterbacked by Colin Kaepernick — reached the Super Bowl. He won’t be 22 until January.
Though he made high-value plays under duress late in Michigan’s mostly unstressful 15-0 run last season, McCarthy won’t again enjoy the massive talent advantages afforded by a powerful line, dominant ground game and overwhelming Wolverines defense.
Raising questions about his durability, the narrow-framed Michael Penix Jr. — whose magnificent deep ing led Washington to the title game — suffered two season-ending injuries to his left knee and two shoulder injuries that ended seasons.
Of course, a QB’s performance derives from more than his own capabilities. Too many teams undermine their investments by not providing the QB adequate offensive from teammates, coaches or both
The Jets failed to Wilson, the BYU alum they chose four years ago and traded with a seven-round pick Monday to the Broncos for a sixth-round pick. They were guilty of similar malpractice with Sam Darnold, whom they drafted third overall out of USC in 2018.
On the whole, however, Jeremiah says the industry has improved in this area.
“There’s more attention being paid now to maybe more so the environment than the actual quarterback, and knowing how to set the table for when you do take the quarterback, that he can be successful,” he said.
Give that a TBD.
For all the GPS tracking of players and es, for all the virtual reality work done by college quarterbacks with space-age goggles, for all the quarterback whisperers, 7-on-7 ing leagues and roughing-the-er flagfests, it’s still something of a crapshoot when Roger Goodell announces a QB’s selection on Draft Night.
