Thousands of new apartments are opening across the region this year.
In the city of San Diego, there’s an attempt to give renters a greater voice on community planning groups — though not without controversy.
Meanwhile, rents in San Diego County actually dipped earlier this year, though that hasn’t offset the previous increases. Compared with much of the nation, rents here remain high.
Nevertheless, a confluence of construction, market and political trends suggest times are better these days for renters. However, there are signs that the situation may change on the development front, while the politics affecting housing construction remain fluid.
The battle over community planning groups is part of the larger struggle over whether or where to build high-density housing that has intensified in recent years.
The San Diego region, along with most of California, has fallen far short of meeting state-mandated housing goals.
Some local governments — like the city of San Diego — have adopted decidedly pro-growth policies. That often has clashed with city-sanctioned advisory planning groups, whose recommendations can influence the size and timing of projects, and even whether they move forward at all.
Some of those groups are dominated by homeowners who object to new housing — multi-family buildings in particular — on the grounds that it doesn’t fit with the neighborhood infrastructure, history or character.
Recent efforts by younger renters, ed by the city government, to alter the makeup of the planning groups have been chronicled for months by David Garrick of The San Diego Union-Tribune.
Pitched political conflicts are taking place over the Uptown Planners group (which has purview over Hillcrest, University Heights, Bankers Hill and nearby areas), and the La Jolla Community Planning Association.
City Hall officials have been working on revamping the structure and hip of the planning groups across the city and in some cases the process by which are elected.
Advocates say the goal is to diversify the groups, which are typically made up of more older, White homeowners than the neighborhoods they represent, by bringing in more renters, people of color and young people.
Some existing of the groups say it’s a ploy to give developers more influence over decisions, and the community less.
A City Council committee recently agreed with the overhaul for the Uptown organization, but not the one in La Jolla. Garrick reported that reforms proposed by the current La Jolla planning group staved off more sweeping action.
Councilmember Joe LaCava, whose district includes La Jolla, said of the rival group should have an easier time getting elected to the board since the revisions.
Even though the changes favor the renter/housing-density faction, it’s not a forever guarantee to positions on the boards. The Uptown group flipped from slow-growth to pro-growth and back again in recent years. The election process may be altered, but politics is often about the art of adapting.
Meanwhile, other neighborhood groups are being merged while the University Community Planning Group in University City is being allowed to increase its size — so it can include UC San Diego students.
Union-Tribune real estate writer Phillip Molnar reported last month that 4,000 new apartments are expected to be available this year in the county, with the bulk in downtown San Diego. That’s about the same number as last year.
That mirrors a nationwide boom in apartment building. But San Diego has not experienced the sharp decreases in rents found in some other cities. For instance, Seattle averaged double-digit declines in rents for all apartments last year, including a 10 percent drop for a one-bedroom unit. Rents for a one-bedroom apartment across San Diego County went down by 1 percent.
Neither city is likely to see pre-pandemic rents anytime soon. KIRO 7 News in Seattle stressed that rents in the Emerald City had skyrocketed 55 percent from February 2021 to June 2022.
The mantra for pro-housing advocates is that creating an adequate supply of homes will lower prices. So far, that hasn’t happened.
Further, the apartment boom in San Diego may be on the wane. Various real estate experts have suggested the recently built units likely were financed before the current high interest rates. Those rates can shrink profit margins that make projects pencil out for developers, while encouraging capital toward other more attractive investments.
The stall in what had been a steady march of rent increases could also contribute to that dynamic.
Bosa Development cited potentially higher returns in shifting its planned 40-story apartment building downtown into a 389-unit condominium tower.
Downtown San Diego also may have the unique factor because it has a large number of apartments coming online over a relatively short period of time — with a substantial stock already.
There’s always an ebb and flow to the housing market.
Molnar pointed out that not far from the Bosa site, the Vantage Pointe building was turned into apartments from condos after the developer failed to sell enough units during the Great Recession.
For-sale housing is certainly affected by the current financial dynamics, but the demand for home ownership is still so high that those projects may offer a better return.
High costs of financing, labor, materials and construction liability insurance could affect the size of future projects or whether they get built at all — including those already permitted.
Recently, Mayor Todd Gloria announced the city issued permits for 9,691 units last year. That’s more than any year since 2005.
When those houses and apartments actually get built may depend on how or whether the financing climate changes.
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