Maneuvering to boost a weaker candidate to defeat a stronger opponent is a time-honored tactic in politics.
Familiar though it may be, it’s always controversial, even if allowed under the rules. Yet as last week’s primary election showed, trying to pick your candidate doesn’t always work.
Such an effort by Mayor Todd Gloria’s backers flopped badly and it may have failed for Carl DeMaio in his Assembly race, though that remains to be determined as votes are still being counted.
It was a different story on the statewide stage. Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff helped elevate Republican candidate Steve Garvey, the former Dodgers and Padres star, into the November election over two Democrats who were widely believed to be potentially tougher fall opponents in deep blue California.
DeMaio, the former San Diego City Council member and radio talk-show host, was the odds-on favorite to finish first in the 75th Assembly District, which covers much of east and north San Diego County. His main competition in the heavily Republican district is Andrew Hayes, a Lakeside school board member, aide to state Sen. Brian Jones and the Republican Party-endorsed candidate.
DeMaio spent a lot of time and money promoting himself and attacking Hayes, who responded in kind. But DeMaio also spent resources boosting Kevin Juza, the candidate endorsed by the Democratic Party, who likely wouldn’t have much of a chance in that district in November.
Election night results had DeMaio far out in front with Juza in second place, but Hayes was in striking distance to leapfrog the Democrat. California’s primary sends the top two finishers to November, regardless of political party.
Over the weekend, vote count updates gave Hayes a slight lead over Juza. Two other Democrats, Christie Dougherty and Joy Frew, were out of the running, but their combined totals likely bled from Juza.
Republican Jack Fernandes also was on the ballot, though as of Tuesday he had received less than 3 percent of the vote for last place.
A handful of independent campaigns financed by organized labor and Republican establishment interests attacked DeMaio while trying to push Hayes into second place. There was also some minor independent spending on behalf of Dougherty.
Should DeMaio and Hayes advance, they’ll face a much larger electorate in November. Something to watch is whether they continue to try to out-conservative each other — and be the toughest on illegal immigration — while tailoring a more moderate message to Democrats and less hard-core Republican-leaning voters.
Regardless, if that’s the matchup, independent campaigns against DeMaio are certain to be there. DeMaio has promised not so much to be the representative of the district as a change agent who will shake up the California Republican Party, as well as continue his criticism of the Democratic legislative majorities and Gov. Gavin Newsom.
By contrast, Hayes has played up his roots in East County and pledged to deliver for constituents despite Democratic control at the state Capitol.
Over the years, DeMaio has become a uniquely unifying figure for Democrats, labor unions and establishment Republicans, many of whom have a visceral dislike of him and don’t want to give him a megaphone in Sacramento.
Not by choice, DeMaio also played a role in a bit of misdirection in the San Diego mayor’s race. He was featured in a mailer Gloria’s forces sent to Republican households in an effort to gain for Jane Glasson, the lone Republican on the ballot.
The flyer, financed by the New San Diego committee, included a generic comment attributed to DeMaio that did not mention or endorse Glasson. A similar mailer sent by the same independent committee featured former President Donald Trump and Garvey, giving the impression they, too, backed Glasson.
The ideal goal was to elevate Glasson to the November election, where she certainly would have lost to the Democratic incumbent in the solidly Democratic city.
The practical goal was to knock out Larry Turner, a San Diego police officer and political independent, in the primary. That likely would have put attorney and social justice advocate Geneviéve Jones-Wright, a Democrat, on the fall ballot. Polls showed Gloria had much greater among Democrats than Jones-Wright, while she was no match for Turner among Republicans.
Gloria ers involved in the New San Diego committee also were behind a lawsuit claiming Turner had not established legal residency in the city in order to run for mayor.
Both those efforts failed. Turner finished comfortably in second place and the lawsuit was dropped a few days after the March 5 primary.
Opponent-picking often generates a backlash. The one in the Senate race was somewhat unexpected, however. Sure, there was some grousing when Schiff started airing ads that made it seem like he was in a one-on-one race with first-time candidate Garvey in an ultimately successful attempt to box out Democratic Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee.
But Porter’s post-primary comments went beyond acceptable sour grapes in the view of many Democrats and political analysts.
Porter blamed her loss on “billionaires spending millions to rig this election.” In addition to the Garvey gambit, the cryptocurrency industry funded a withering campaign aimed at torpedoing Porter’s candidacy.
Some critics were appalled that Porter used the same combustible language as Trump — that the election was rigged — as he does in trying to undermine President Joe Biden’s legitimate victory in 2020. What the Schiff and the crypto campaigns did may have been unsavory to many, but there was nothing out of the normal bounds of tough campaigns.
Jon Fleischman, longtime Republican strategist, told CalMatters he thought Garvey will energize GOP voters in November, potentially helping Republicans in down-ballot races.
It was during a California U.S. Senate campaign nearly four decades ago that funding a weak candidate is widely believed to have come into prominence in the modern era, though in a different manner than in this election cycle.
In the 1986 general election, longtime Democratic incumbent Alan Cranston was in the political fight of his life against Rep. Ed Zschau, a Republican from Silicon Valley. Cranston backers funneled money into the campaign of Edward Vallen, the candidate for the conservative American Independent Party.
That appeared to split off just enough from Zschau to give Cranston a narrow victory. Some of those involved in the scheme were later indicted for violating campaign contribution limits.
But the tactic worked and, while not always successful, has been a common campaign strategy ever since.
