The first thing I’d like you to know about Sunday’s AFC championship game goes back to June 2017 and a football clinic at Coronado High School.
“Come on out,” the event’s promoter told me. “We have some good quarterbacks as instructors.”
Yeah, the instructors were pretty good all right.
One was Patrick Mahomes.
Another was Lamar Jackson.
Many successes later, the two will duel Sunday with a Super Bowl berth on the line.
In their visit to San Diego seven years ago, what did I glean from Mahomes and Jackson in brief chats with each one?
They were comfortable talking with a stranger.
They had an ease to them. Both looked me in the eyes. Neither was rehearsed. They evinced a confident humility.
“First time to San Diego,” Jackson said, flashing a smile that displayed braces.
“I love it here,” said Mahomes, who had trained in Carlsbad that spring, leading up to the draft.
Another instructor was Josh Rosen, UCLA’s QB.
He made a less favorable impression in our chat. Perhaps he was having a bad day.
When the campers took a break, Mahomes provided a glimpse into the creative playmaking he’d shown at Texas Tech.
He worked on rollouts, only these weren’t typical rollouts. He pirouetted into a backpedal toward the sideline while looking downfield. He did this several times.
Mahomes had been drafted that April, going 10th to the Chiefs after they’d traded up 17 spots to get him.
Jackson was coming off a Heisman Trophy season with Louisville.
He would play one more season in college and land with the Ravens as the first round’s final pick in 2018.
Sunday marks the first time they’ve met in the postseason.
My preview is simple.
The Ravens will win because they’re the more complete, consistent and physical team, in addition to being slightly healthier.
But it’s significant that the Chiefs, underdogs by 3.5 points, stand 9-1-1 against the point spread as an underdog in Mahomes’ starts.
For the Chiefs to win, they’ll probably need one of very best performances they’ve received from Mahomes.
For the Ravens to win, they’ll likely need Jackson to maintain his high standard of the past regular season that stands to earn him a second NFL MVP award.
What has Mahomes accomplished as an NFL quarterback since that postcard day in Coronado seven years ago?
He’s fulfilled the forecast of Philip Rivers.
After seeing Mahomes up close for the first time, Rivers said he has a chance to be “really, really, really, really good.”
Arguably, Mahomes has accomplished more than any other NFL QB through his first six seasons as a starter other than Tom Brady.
All six of his clubs won the AFC West title and went on to the AFC Championship Game. If not for a pair of overtimes losses there — to Brady’s Patriots and Joe Burrow’s Bengals — Mahomes would’ve gone to five Super Bowls in the five years after he succeeded San Diego’s Alex Smith as Kansas City’s starter.
He’s won a pair of Super Bowls, a pair of Super Bowl MVP awards and a pair of league MVP awards.
The Chiefs have won 77 percent of Mahomes’ starts in the six regular seasons.
In the postseason, the win rate is 81 percent.
The most amazing thing about Jackson, 27, is that he’s now very close to matching Mahomes, 28, in overall aptitude although their styles differ in some key respects.
Already the most dangerous rushing QB in NFL history, Jackson is become more comfortable at using his mobility and rushing threat to prolong plays.
He’s improved at throws within structure and perimeter throws. As a leader, he’s become more outspoken within the team.
Because they’re both still young, it’s logical to believe Jackson and Mahomes will meet again in other AFC title games.
But the enormity of the opportunity Sunday’s game represents won’t be lost on either one.
There’s no taking for granted a return to the AFC mountaintop — especially with rookie QB C.J. Stroud performing so well for the AFC Texans and Jim Harbaugh aligning with Justin Herbert with the AFC Chargers.
Jackson saw injuries ruin his previous two Super Bowl bids. This time around, going into his first AFC title game, he’s relatively fresh due to the first-round bye and other respites the Ravens earned through their consistent dominance.
Because Jackson’s salary-cap hit will go up $11 million next year and $31 million the following year, it will be difficult for the Ravens to maintain a roster as loaded as the current one.
They could soon lose Mike Macdonald, the coordinator of their defense, which leads the NFL in fewest points allowed.
Mahomes called the past season his most difficult one yet, a warning sign that, unless the Chiefs find him a lot more help this offseason, returning to a seventh consecutive AFC title game will be even more difficult.
His -catching corps, notwithstanding the impressive rookie receiver Rashee Rice and Mahomes’ great rapport with tight end Travis Kelce, stands a notch or two below the best of the Mahomes era.
Later on Sunday, the underdog Lions and the top-seeded 49ers should deliver one of the more physical NFC title games of recent years.
But for the potential spectrum of playmaking at QB, the Ravens-Chiefs game beats a whole bunch of Super Bowls, much less AFC title games.
