There’s still time for Dean and John Spanos to learn from their mistakes.
After all, Justin Herbert is only 25. The big contract the quarterback signed last summer won’t pinch hard until 2026.
But for a Chargers franchise headed by the two Spanoses, most of one big opportunity has been frittered away.
I’m referring to a golden ticket enjoyed by only a small handful of NFL franchises each year: the double-value of employing a good QB who’s also on his first contract or perhaps the front end of a second contract, enabling the team to devote more of its salary cap to other positions and raise the overall talent level.
Such bargains have derived in part from the league’s 2012 collective bargaining agreement and one like it that followed it in 2020.
These deals severely cut the pay of top draftees; so for the NFL teams that found a young QB who could be counted on to perform well, it was the best of two worlds.
The Chargers lucked into such a QB in Herbert.
But where the Herbert Era shows no West titles, no playoff victories and no home playoff games, other NFL clubs leveraged their golden tickets into trips to conference championship games, Super Bowls and even the Super Bowl trophy stage.
In my search of good young quarterbacks dating to 2012, I chose first- to fifth-year qualified starters who finished in the NFL’s top half in er rating and ESPN’s quarterback rating in the same season and preferably two or more seasons.
The search turned up 15 QBs, including Herbert.
Disclaimer: the number would be 17 if I included recent draftees Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud, who’ve led the 49ers and Texans into this month’s postseason.
I excluded Purdy because he started only five regular-season games as a rookie in 2022. But he’s a massive bargain who led the NFL in er rating and QB rating this year. By performing so well on a seventh-round salary, Purdy has provided stupendous salary-cap value to the 49ers, who not coincidentally employ several high-salaried veteran stars.
This past season as a rookie, Stroud finished second in QB rating and sixth in er rating as the Texans earned a home playoff game.
Listed in order of postseason success, the 14 golden-ticket QBs beyond Herbert are Patrick Mahomes (drafted in 2018), Russell Wilson (2012), Joe Burrow (2020), Jalen Hurts (2020), Jared Goff (2016), Carson Wentz (2016), Josh Allen (2018), Andrew Luck (2018), Lamar Jackson (2018), Dak Prescott (2016), Deshaun Watson (2017), Ryan Tannehill (2012), Kirk Cousins (2012) and Tua Tagovailoa (2020).
Most of those QBs won a division title or a playoff game within those five seasons. Mahomes being two-time Super Bowl MVP, he gets “platinum ticket” status, too.
With Mahomes and Wilson, respectively, the Chiefs and Seahawks each went to two Super Bowls and won a Lombardi Trophy.
Moving him past Wilson on this list, Mahomes led four consecutive Chiefs teams to an AFC title game after he sat behind San Diego’s Alex Smith as a rookie (and did it again last year, before winning a second Super Bowl).
Burrow, Hurts and Goff piloted the Bengals, Eagles and Rams to a Super Bowl.
Now, perhaps Wentz was never your idea of a good QB. But before a knee injury ended his second NFL season, those 2017 Eagles went 11-2 in his starts en route to the NFC’s top seed. Backup Nick Foles, himself on a cheap contract, replaced Wentz. Assisted by a great offensive line and continued RPO mastery that troubled defenses, the Eagles went on to capture the franchise’s first Super Bowl victory.
These Super Bowl runs happened fast. That stood out.
Wilson was in just his second season when Pete Carroll’s Seahawks, led by a great defense, earned the franchise’s first Super Bowl victory.
Preserving money for the “Legion of Boom,” Wilson drew a paltry third-round salary.
Similarly, Andy Reid’s Chiefs claimed the franchise’s first Lombardi Trophy in 50 years with Mahomes just two years into his starting gig, and Burrow was an NFL sophomore when when he teamed up with rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase to lead Zac Taylor’s club to the franchise’s third Super Bowl.
Burrow went first overall in the draft — five spots ahead of Herbert — but his salary was still a large bargain. Not only did free agents want to the Burrow Train, the Bengals had the money to pay them. Many of those moves paid off on defense.
Goff was fortunate to a Rams franchise that had an all-time great in Aaron Donald, a homegrown defensive tackle moving toward his peak years; and one that would hire coach Sean McVay before Goff’s second season.
The Rams squeezed more than the one Super Bowl out of Goff. Less than a year after trading Goff for QB Matthew Stafford — sending also draft picks and salary cap relief to the Lions — the Rams got back to the Super Bowl and won it over Burrow’s Bengals.
The Cowboys found a fourth-round gem in Prescott, and the Ravens found a future NFL MVP in Jackson, chosen with the final pick of the first round.
Those four- and five-year contracts freed up a lot of money for other positions.
That Baltimore and Dallas won just one playoff game apiece off those “golden tickets” may be of some comfort to Chargers fans. Here’s why: despite paying up for their star QBs, as the Chargers have begun to do with Herbert, the Ravens have fielded a complete team around Jackson, now in his sixth season, in earning the AFC’s top seed; and the Cowboys, in Prescott’s eighth season, fielded a pair of top-5 units and took the NFC’s No. 2 seed.
Sounding off
Andy Reid’s Chiefs did Team Spanos two favors by beating them twice.
The Chiefs’ first-half romp against Brandon Staley’s D at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 7 brewed strong coffee for Staley fan John Spanos, who would fire Staley last month. As for the Chiefs’ victory Sunday, it lifted the Chargers to the No. 5 draft slot where, given the trio of QB-needy teams above them, they likely can choose the non-QB who has their highest or second-highest grade. …
Titans rookie Tyjae Spears had 52 receptions this season. The franchise hadn’t seen that many from a rookie running back since 1964. Chargers fans may recall the previous rookie RB to do it, Sid Blanks, because he caught 13 es for 131 yards at Balboa Stadium as San Diego began its defense of the franchise’s AFL title with a win over the Houston Oilers.
The Oilers’ coach that day? Hall of Fame QB Sammy Baugh. …
CBS’ decision to bench the Chargers in favor of the Packers-Bears game paid off in better football for San Diegans who tuned into KFMB Channel 8, the longtime Chargers home. Packers QB Jordan Love directed a decent NFL offense, in contrast to the efforts of the Bolts and Chiefs. …
Inside the sunken Kroenke Dome, the Chargers went 2-7 this season.
Coach Jim Harbaugh wasn’t the only Michigan man whose NFL stock went up in Monday night’s national championship game. True sophomore DT Mason Graham, just 20, was perhaps the best performer on either team. Washington sixth-year senior TE Jack Westover showed NFL agility and good hands.
