WEEK 16 RECAP
Rams 30, Saints 22: In five games since returning from injury, Kyren Williams has 601 rushing yards (5.4 yards per carry), 17 receptions (for 87 yards) and five total touchdowns with an average of 25.6 touches per game. Christian McCaffrey is the only running back who has been more valuable over that span and it’s closer than you think.
Steelers 34, Bengals 11: George Pickens exploded for 195 receiving yards and two TDs against Cincinnati. Pickens had produced 210 yards and no scores in his previous four games.
Bills 24, Chargers 22: Since Week 10, Stefon Diggs (WR60) is actually the third-best wide receiver on Buffalo in standard formats. Both Gabe Davis (WR37) and Khalil Shakir (WR59) have outproduced Diggs. He’s only scored double-digit points in PPR once in the last six games.
Falcons 29, Colts 10: Atlanta is the seventh-highest scoring defense in fantasy since Week 12, producing at least 12 points in three of its last five games.
Seahawks 20, Titans 17: Chigoziem Okonkwo caught six es for 63 yards and a touchdown, his first of the season, against Seattle. Okonkwo is the overall TE11 in standard formats (TE9 in PPR) since Week 12 with at least 45 receiving yards in four of his last five games after failing to top 35 receiving yards in each of his first 10 games.
Lions 30, Vikings 24: Amon-Ra St. Brown is the overall WR5 in standard formats (WR3 in PPR) through 16 weeks. St. Brown has at least six receptions, 95 yards or a TD in 13 of 14 games this season.
Jets 30, Commanders 28: Breece Hall ran the ball 20 times for 95 yards and two TDs, plus added 12 receptions (on 16 targets) for 96 receiving yards against Washington. Only Amari Cooper had a bigger week in fantasy. Hall has topped 190 total yards three times in 22 career games.
Packers 33, Panthers 30: Luke Musgrave has been out with a lacerated kidney and fellow rookie tight end Tucker Kraft has taken full advantage of the opportunity for Green Bay. Kraft has at least four receptions, 60 yards or a TD in three straight games.
Browns 36, Texans 22: Joe Flacco has thrown at least 42 es in all four starts this season for Cleveland. Over the last three games, Amari Cooper and David Njoku have combined for a 52 percent target share.
Buccaneers 30, Jaguars 12: Mike Evans caught two more TDs against Jacksonville to give him an NFL-best 13 this season. Evans has at least 12 touchdowns in five of his 10 seasons, and at least 13 in three of the last four.
Bears 27, Cardinals 16: D’Onta Foreman missed Week 16 due to personal matters, setting Khalil Herbert up to have his best game for Chicago since Week 4. Herbert finished with 20 carries, 112 yards and his first rushing TD of the season against Arizona.
Dolphins 22, Cowboys 20: Raheem Mostert has 40 career TDs in nine seasons, including 21 so far this year, which ties him with Christian McCaffrey for the most in the NFL.
Patriots 26, Broncos 23: Ezekiel Elliott is the overall RB13 in standard formats (RB7 in PPR) since Week 13 with at least 21 touches in three of the last four games for New England. Elliott has 25 receptions — of his 45 this season — over that span.
Raiders 20, Chiefs 14: Travis Kelce is the overall TE10 in standard formats (TE6 in PPR) since Week 12 and he hasn’t scored a TD in five straight games.
Eagles 33, Giants 25: Saquon Barkley has been on the every-other-game diet since Week 10. Barkley scored fewer than eight PPR points in Weeks 10, 12 and 15, while producing at least 19 PPR points in Weeks 11, 14 and 16.
Ravens 33, 49ers 19: Lamar Jackson is one of five quarterbacks averaging at least 20 fantasy points per game this season. The others are Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott and Joe Flacco.
Feel free to hit me up @UTEddieBrown on X, formerly known as Twitter, with any specific lineup questions I don’t cover in my posts.
Here’s my best bets for Week 17:
N.Y. JETS AT CLEVELAND
Obvious starters: Garrett Wilson (NYJ), Breece Hall (NYJ), David Njoku (CLE), Amari Cooper (CLE), Browns D/ST.
Who to start: The Jets D/ST faces an offense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Jerome Ford (CLE) has scored at least 11 points in PPR in eight of the last 11 games.
Who to sit: Tyler Conklin (NYJ) faces a defense allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Elijah Moore (CLE) faces a defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. I’m fading Joe Flacco (CLE) against a defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Sleeper: Kareem Hunt (CLE) faces a defense that has allowed six TDs to running backs in the last three games.
DETROIT AT DALLAS
Obvious starters: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET), Sam LaPorta (DET), Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), David Montgomery (DET), CeeDee Lamb (DAL), Tony Pollard (DAL), Dak Prescott (DAL).
Who to start: Jake Ferguson (DAL) faces a defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Who to sit: Jared Goff (DET) has only topped 20 fantasy points twice out of eight road games this season. Jameson Williams (DET) faces a defense allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. The Cowboys D/ST has failed to top a single fantasy point in three of the last four games.
Sleeper: Brandin Cooks (DAL) faces a defense that has allowed 11 TD receptions to wide receivers in the last seven games.
NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO
Obvious starters: Josh Allen (BUF), Stefon Diggs (BUF), James Cook (BUF), Bills D/ST.
Who to start: Ezekiel Elliott (NE) has at least 92 total yards or a TD in three of the last four games.
Who to sit: The Patriots D/ST faces an offense allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses. JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE) has failed to top 11 receiving yards in four of his last six games. Hunter Henry (NE) is dealing with a knee injury and faces a defense that hasn’t allowed a TD to tight ends since Week 9. Dalton Kincaid (BUF) faces a defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Gabe Davis (BUF) remains a boom-or-bust candidate with only nine targets in the last three games.
Sleeper: Demario Douglas (NE) has double-digit PPR points in five of his last seven games.
ATLANTA AT CHICAGO
Obvious starters: Bijan Robinson (ATL), DJ Moore (CHI), Justin Fields (CHI).
Who to start: Kyle Pitts (ATL) faces a defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to tight ends. Cole Kmet (CHI) is an obvious starter with a matchup if he’s active — he’s currently dealing with a knee ailment.
Who to sit: Drake London (ATL) is a boom-or-bust candidate with three-or-fewer receptions in four of the last six games. I’m fading a banged-up Falcons D/ST on the road despite the matchup. I’m fading Khalil Herbert (CHI), D’Onta Foreman (CHI) and Roschon Johnson (CHI) against a defense allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs.
Sleeper: Only the Dolphins (15.2) and Raiders (14.5) are averaging more fantasy points than the Bears D/ST (12) since Week 12.
LAS VEGAS AT INDIANAPOLIS
Obvious starters: Davante Adams (LV), Michael Pittman Jr. (IND), Jonathan Taylor (IND).
Who to start: The Raiders D/ST is the highest scoring option in fantasy since Week 8, averaging 13.3 points per game. The Colts D/ST is the third-highest scoring option in fantasy since Week 9, averaging 13 points per game. Gardner Minshew (IND) has thrown multiple TD es in three of his last four games at home.
Who to sit: It’s looking like Josh Jacobs (LV) will be sidelined for a third straight game with a quad injury. Jakobi Meyers (LV) only has eight receptions for 110 yards in his last three road games. Zack Moss (IND) is TD-dependent with Taylor healthy. Josh Downs (IND) is the overall WR80 in standard formats (WR58 in PPR) since Week 12.
Sleeper: Zamir White (LV) faces a defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to running backs if Jacobs remains out.
L.A. RAMS AT N.Y. GIANTS
Obvious starters: Kyren Williams (LAR), Puka Nacua (LAR), Cooper Kupp (LAR).
Who to start: Matthew Stafford (LAR) is the overall QB2 in fantasy since Week 12, behind only Jalen Hurts. The Rams D/ST deserves streaming consideration against an offense allowing the most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Darren Waller (NYG) faces a defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Who to sit: Tyler Higbee (LAR) remains TD-dependent with only 15 receptions in his last five games. I’m fading Saquon Barkley (NYG) against a defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs.
Sleeper: Demarcus Robinson (LAR) has a TD reception in four straight games and faces a defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
ARIZONA AT PHILADELPHIA
Obvious starters: James Conner (ARI), Trey McBride (ARI), Jalen Hurts (PHI), AJ Brown (PHI), DeVonta Smith (PHI), D’Andre Swift (PHI).
Who to start: Kyler Murray (ARI) faces a defense that is tied with the Commanders for allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Dallas Goedert (PHI) has at least four receptions in every game since returning from injury and has received nine targets in each of the last two.
Who to sit: It’s hard to trust Marquise Brown (ARI) with a heel injury that he’s dealt with since Week 13 and caused him to miss last week. Rondale Moore (ARI) remains a boom-or-bust candidate with only eight receptions in the last five games.
Sleeper: Greg Dortch (ARI) faces a defense allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers and has scored double-digit PPR points in three of the last five games.
NEW ORLEANS AT TAMPA BAY
Obvious starters: Alvin Kamara (NO), Chris Olave (NO), Mike Evans (TB), Rachaad White (TB).
Who to start: Rashid Shaheed (NO) has flex appeal against a defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Derek Carr (NO) faces a defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and has thrown eight TD es against only two interceptions in the last three games. Chris Godwin (TB) has at least five receptions and 10 targets in three straight games. Baker Mayfield (TB) in the overall QB6 in fantasy since Week 8. The Buccaneers D/ST allowed nine points, created three turnovers and had three sacks at New Orleans in a Week 4 victory.
Who to sit: Taysom Hill (NO) is the overall TE24 in standard formats (TE28 in PPR) since Week 10. The Saints D/ST faces an offense allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses. Cade Otton (TB) is TD-dependent against a defense that has only allowed 11 receptions for 94 yards to tight ends in the last three games.
Sleeper: Juwan Johnson (NO) faces a defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends.
SAN FRANCISCO AT WASHINGTON
Obvious starters: Christian McCaffrey (SF), George Kittle (SF), Deebo Samuel (SF), Brandon Aiyuk (SF), Brock Purdy (SF), 49ers D/ST.
Who to start: Terry McLaurin (WAS) has at least four receptions, 50 yards or a TD in 13 of the last 14 games. Curtis Samuel (WAS) is the overall WR36 in standard formats (WR31 in PPR) since Week 12.
Who to sit: I’m fading Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) and Antonio Gibson (WAS) against a defense allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Jacoby Brissett (WAS) faces a defense allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Jahan Dotson (WAS) is a boom-or-bust candidate with only 10 targets in the last three games.
Sleeper: Logan Thomas (WAS) faces a defense that has allowed four receptions, 73 yards or a TD to tight ends in three straight games.
CAROLINA AT JACKSONVILLE
Obvious starters: Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC), Evan Engram (JAC).
Who to start: Chuba Hubbard (CAR) has at least 87 rushing yards or a TD in five straight games. Adam Thielen (CAR) has at least five receptions in 11 of the last 14 games. DJ Chark Jr. (CAR) has flex appeal in deeper leagues against a defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Calvin Ridley (JAC) is the overall WR7 in standard formats (WR8 in PPR) since Week 11.
Who to sit: Miles Sanders (CAR) has double-digit touches only once in the last four games. I’m fading Trevor Lawrence (JAC) against a defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Sleeper: The Jaguars D/ST faces an offense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses.
MIAMI AT BALTIMORE
Obvious starters: Tyreek Hill (MIA), Raheem Mostert (MIA), Lamar Jackson (BAL).
Who to start: Zay Flowers (BAL) has at least five receptions and a TD in three of the last four games. The Ravens D/ST is averaging 10.4 points per game this season.
Who to sit: Jaylen Waddle (MIA) is expected to be sidelined with an ankle injury. I’m fading Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) against a defense allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. I’m also fading De’Von Achane (MIA) against a defense allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. The Dolphins D/ST faces an offense allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses. Gus Edwards (BAL) is TD-dependent against a defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs. Odell Beckham Jr. (BAL) is TD-dependent with only 15 receptions in the last six games.
Sleeper: Isaiah Likely (BAL) has at least 56 receiving yards or a TD in three straight games.
TENNESSEE AT HOUSTON
Obvious starters: Derrick Henry (TEN), DeAndre Hopkins (TEN), CJ Stroud (HOU), Nico Collins (HOU).
Who to start: Tyjae Spears (TEN) has flex appeal in PPR as the overall RB20 since Week 13. Devin Singletary (HOU) is the overall RB10 in standard formats (RB8 in PPR) since Week 10. Noah Brown (HOU) has flex appeal in Stroud’s return against a defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Who to sit: I’m fading Dalton Schultz (HOU) against a defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
Sleeper: Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) faces a defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends.
PITTSBURGH AT SEATTLE
Obvious starters: DK Metcalf (SEA), Kenneth Walker (SEA), Tyler Lockett (SEA).
Who to start: Both Najee Harris (PIT) and Jaylen Warren (PIT) maintain flex appeal against a defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. Diontae Johnson (PIT) has at least five receptions, 50 yards or a TD in seven of the last 10 games. George Pickens (PIT) is the overall WR25 in standard formats (WR29 in PPR) since Week 8. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) maintains flex appeal as the overall WR33 in PPR since Week 6.
Who to sit: I’m fading the Steelers D/ST on the road against an offense allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses. Geno Smith (SEA) faces a defense that has only allowed one-or-fewer TD es to quarterbacks in eight of the last 11 games.
Sleeper: Pat Freiermuth (PIT) faces a defense that has allowed a TD to tight ends in three of the last four games.
L.A. CHARGERS AT DENVER
Obvious starters: None.
Who to start: Austin Ekeler (LAC) faces a defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to running backs. Javonte Williams (DEN) is the overall RB21 in standard formats (RB20 in PPR) since Week 7. Courtland Sutton (DEN) is an obvious starter if he is active (Sutton is currently in the NFL’s concussion protocol). Jerry Jeudy (DEN) has flex appeal against a defense that has allowed 10 TD receptions to wide receivers in the last seven games. The Broncos D/ST deserves streaming consideration at home against Easton Stick.
Who to sit: I’d be surprised if Keenan Allen (LAC) is active for either of the next two games. Joshua Palmer (LAC) is currently in the NFL’s concussion protocol. Quentin Johnston (LAC) is TD-dependent with only 12 receptions in the last four games (even if Allen and Palmer are out).
Sleeper: Gerald Everett (LAC) faces a defense allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends.
CINCINNATI AT KANSAS CITY
Obvious starters: Joe Mixon (CIN), Tee Higgins (CIN), Travis Kelce (KC), Patrick Mahomes (KC).
Who to start: It’s hard to bench Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) in a championship game if he’s active. Rashee Rice (KC) is the overall WR10 in standard formats (WR5 in PPR) since Week 12.
Who to sit: Tyler Boyd (CIN) faces a defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Isiah Pacheco (KC) remains in the NFL’s concussion protocol. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) only has flex appeal if Pacheco is out.
Sleeper: Jake Browning (CIN) has thrown for at least 324 yards and ed for multiple touchdowns in three of the last four games.
GREEN BAY AT MINNESOTA
Obvious starters: Aaron Jones (GB), Justin Jefferson (MIN).
Who to start: Jordan Love (GB) is the overall QB4 in fantasy since Week 10. Both Romeo Doubs (GB) and Jayden Reed (GB) have WR3/flex upside against a defense allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Ty Chandler (MIN) faces a defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs.
Who to sit: AJ Dillon (GB) is TD-dependent with Jones healthy. I’m fading Tucker Kraft (GB) against a defense that has only allowed 14 receptions for 124 yards and no TDs to tight ends in the last three games. Jordan Addison (MIN) may be out or limited with an ankle injury. Alexander Mattison (MIN) didn’t look 100 percent last week and is likely only a TD-dependent option here. The Vikings D/ST faces an offense allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses. KJ Osborn (MIN) only has flex appeal if Addison is out.
Sleeper: The Packers D/ST deserves streaming consideration against an offense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses and a rookie QB only making his second start.
