The number of new COVID-19 cases in the hard-hit South Bay is starting to decline for the first time since the pandemic began to spread throughout San Diego County in March.
And while officials are happy with the news, they stressed that the public must remain vigilant to avoid another spike now that the state and county are starting to reopen businesses and lift restrictions.
“We still have to remain cautious, we can’t let our guard down,” said Chula Vista Mayor Mary Casillas Salas.
The number of new cases in Chula Vista spiked in the middle of July, after the first reopening. Data shows some days with as many as 81 new COVID-19 cases. But over the last two weeks, Chula Vista has averaged roughly 30 new cases per day, according to Marlon King, an emergency services coordinator for Chula Vista.
“Things are starting to head in the right direction,” he said.
This downward trend isn’t unique to the South Bay as data shows a decline in new cases throughout the county. However, this bit of good news is particularly significant to the southern part of the region where COVID-19 infection rates have been the highest in the county for months. For example, countywide, the rate of infection is 1,127.3 per 100,000 people. That rate is 2,237.3 in National City and 1,776.6 in Chula Vista.
Health care experts and social service providers say the recent downward trend isn’t the result of a single factor, but rather a combination of initiatives such as awareness campaigns, greater adherence to public health guidelines, increased testing and tracing.
“There’s definitely a sense of t responsibility among the agencies that service the South Bay region that has helped lead to this little glimmer of good news,” said Andrea Landis, director of communications for South Bay Community Services.
Landis said nonprofits have put special attention on reaching out to the Latino community by going directly to the people and eliminating language and cultural barriers.
South Bay Community Services has a team of bilingual “promotoras,” who already have established networks in Chula Vista working as tracers. The organization has also partnered with Health and Human Services to host biweekly zoom meetings in Spanish.
During these meetings, about 50 or 60 participants hear directly from HHS staff about different services and updates. More importantly, the participants are able to ask questions directly to HHS experts. Most recently, the questions focused on school reopening plans, Landis said.
Experts say this special focus on the Latino community is needed because it is the ethnic group that has been most impacted by COVID-19.
Census data show that Latinos make up 36 percent of the county’s population, but they for 63 percent of all confirmed COVID-19 cases, according to data from San Diego County.
This disproportion is because the Latino population is over-represented in “high-, high-risk, low-paying jobs that are essential,” said Roberto Alcantar, chief strategy officer for the Chicano Federation.
“That just shows you how the system has failed the Latino community,” he added.
There are also “environmental injustices” that lead to people having preexisting conditions, such as children growing up near the highway in National City have higher rates of asthma, people in San Ysidro who don’t have access to healthy food have higher rates of diabetes.
“For us, going back to normal isn’t an option anymore,” he said. “We have to do better to fix the systemic issues that put us here in the first place.”
Officials also point to an increased access in testing as one of the reasons behind the decrease in new cases.
Back in April, when data showed that the number of cases in the South Bay was growing at a much faster rate than the rest of the county, the mayors of Chula Vista, National City and Imperial Beach demanded more testing and publicly criticized the county during a news conference.
There are now eight testing sites in the South Bay, including one at the San Ysidro border crossing — which is the country’s busiest border crossing and used daily by hundreds of essential workers, including U.S. citizens who live in Tijuana, to get to and from work.
National City has one at the Kimball Senior Center and another at Saint Anthony’s of Padua Catholic Church. Bonita has one at the Sunnyside Fire Department, Imperial Beach at Mar Vista High School, and Chula Vista has one at Aquatica San Diego and another at 565 Broadway.
Increased access to testing and data about where positive results come from also helps experts figure out where to divert resources.
For example, about 3 percent of COVID-19 tests come back positive throughout the county. But in some parts of Chula Vista, the positivity rate is three times higher.
Testing data from the middle of August shows that people who live in the 91911 ZIP code tested positive at a rate of 10 percent.
To local experts, this discrepancy is another reminder that despite the decline in case numbers, there is still much work do to.
“We are doing well in our battle against COVID-19, but we must continue to hold steady,” King said. “We can’t forget what it took to get here. We’re going to need everybody to do their part.”
Landis said that while the numbers are down, people are still suffering from the pandemic’s economic impacts. South Bay Community Services’ food distribution program is still seeing 10 times more people than before the pandemic.
This means people are going to have to continue wearing face masks, washing their hands and following social-distancing guidelines, even while the state on Friday paved the way for a limited reopening of beauty salons, gyms, movie theaters and other businesses in San Diego County.
“We all expect that with school and business reopenings there will be an uptick, but we are all better prepared than we were in the onset of the pandemic,” said National City Mayor Alejandra Sotelo-Solis. “We must continue and urge everyone to follow best practices to keep us all healthy.”
Like cities, hospitals in the South Bay are preparing for a potential rebound in the coming months.
At Sharp Healthcare, staff are already working on an awareness campaign for the flu season, said Leslie Aquinde, senior marketing and communications specialist.
Aquinde said Sharp has seen a decrease in COVID-related hospitalizations that coincides with the downward trend in new cases. She said there are about 20 COVID-19 patients in the hospital, down from an average of 40 patients during the peak in July.
At Scripps Health, data show that while the number of COVID-19 patients is also trending downward, the reality is more nuanced. That decline is marked with sporadic spikes.
The daily number of COVID-19 patients at Scripps hospitals who give South County home addresses has declined since June, but with periodic spikes and a recent increase. South Bay has generally been the most prevalent region for patients’ home address among all COVID-19 inpatients at Scripps hospitals, according to data from Scripps Health, said Steve Carpowich, public relations manager for Scripps.
